Australia’s Nationals Face Electoral Pressure as One Nation Gains Ground

The Nationals’ most immediate challenge is no longer just defending their place in the Coalition. One Nation is drawing voters, recruits and volunteers from the party’s regional base, putting the Nationals’ long-term electoral strength under pressure. The extent of that shift should become clearer in state elections in Victoria and New South Wales, followed by the federal contest in 2028.

Matt Canavan, who has confirmed he plans to leave the Senate for the House of Representatives, is expected to contest Capricornia in central Queensland and is considered the favourite there. His move gives the Nationals a prominent campaigner in a region where One Nation already had a solid vote before its recent national surge. But Canavan’s likely arrival in the lower house raises a broader question: how many of his colleagues will still be there to meet him?

The party has weathered predictions of decline for decades. This time, the warning signs are more concrete, particularly in New South Wales. The May by-election in Farrer offers one measure of the risk: the seat, once held by former Nationals leader and deputy prime minister Tim Fischer, is now represented by One Nation. The Farrer by-election in May may foreshadow a wider shift in seats the Nationals have long treated as theirs.

State contests will test the party’s position

The Nationals face two state elections before the 2028 federal poll. Victoria votes this month, while New South Wales goes to the polls in March. The party’s prospects look markedly different in each state.

In Victoria, the Nationals expect to retain most of their nine lower house seats, with one considered vulnerable. They are also eyeing Bendigo East, where former premier Jacinta Allan is retiring. Party sources say polling suggests the name recognition of Victorian Nationals MPs can be worth around 10 per cent. The state party also has a distinct identity, while One Nation is weaker there than in New South Wales.

New South Wales is a harsher test. The Nationals hold 11 lower house seats, but their prospects have been described as dire, with a near wipe-out a possibility. Optional preferential voting will add complexity to the contest. In recent federal elections, the party’s seat count has obscured substantial declines in its primary vote across many NSW seats over the past two elections. That erosion could become harder to conceal in a state poll.

There is a wider electoral pattern to consider. Analyst Antony Green noted that the Nationals held nearly 36 per cent of Coalition seats after the 2025 federal election, their largest share since the Second World War. But his historical analysis points to a familiar trade-off: the Country and National parties have tended to hold a larger portion of Coalition seats when the Coalition is in opposition, and a smaller portion when it governs.

Leadership choices have strengthened One Nation

The Nationals damaged their standing after the 2025 election by splitting from the Coalition twice before David Littleproud resigned as leader in March. The episodes left the party looking unpredictable. It also lost Barnaby Joyce, whom Littleproud had sidelined, to One Nation.

Joyce’s departure mattered beyond the loss of a familiar figure. He has brought One Nation greater political weight and, in an unexpected role, can soften some of Pauline Hanson’s more abrasive edges. He also regularly takes on ABC interviewers, even as One Nation has barred the public broadcaster from its events. His move has helped signal to some regional Coalition voters that One Nation is a viable alternative.

Canavan now has to compete with that influence while establishing his own leadership. He is a forceful communicator, disciplined and driven, with an economics degree with first-class honours and experience at the Productivity Commission. He may not match earlier Nationals figures such as Doug Anthony, Ian Sinclair or Peter Nixon, but he is well equipped to put the party’s case.

Under Canavan, the Nationals have been willing to set their own direction, even when that creates tension with the Liberals or puts pressure on the senior Coalition partner. At the same time, he has managed a workable relationship with Liberal leader Angus Taylor. Canavan has also directly challenged Hanson, including over her position on conflict in Iran. In a post invoking the US midterms, he wrote:

At its heart is the complete rejection of another failed Middle East war that has worsened the living standards of working people.

I was against the conflict from the get-go. […] Pauline Hanson said that the conflict in Iran was 'our problem' and that we should help Trump 'stamp out the evil that is happening throughout the world'.

It is possible to imagine the Nationals and One Nation competing differently if Joyce were still alongside Canavan. For now, though, Joyce’s departure has given the rival party a figure with a national profile and a direct connection to the Nationals’ voter base.

A long history offers some protection

The 2028 election is too far away for reliable predictions about individual seats. Nationals sources say three of the party’s four Senate positions are currently at risk: Bridget McKenzie’s seat in Victoria, Ross Cadell’s in New South Wales, and the Queensland seat Canavan will leave. Queensland senator Susan McDonald’s position is safer because she is not due to face re-election in 2028. Several eastern-state lower house seats could also be vulnerable on present trends.

Local standing and preference flows may shape those outcomes. MPs who have built strong reputations as advocates for their communities may be better placed to hold their seats. Labor’s preferences could also matter, since the party ranks One Nation below the Coalition.

Australian National University historian Stephen Wilks, who has written a biography of long-serving Country Party leader Earle Page, argues that the Nationals have assets that could help them endure. The party has operated continuously at the national level since 1920. It can draw on the rural-urban divide, has adapted beyond its origins as a farmers’ party to represent rural towns, and benefits from its place in the Coalition. Wilks also argues that One Nation’s credibility on governing is weaker than its appeal as a protest party.

Wilks sees a historical echo in One Nation’s rise. The early Country Party, he says, occupied roughly the same political space: an anti-establishment force that rejected conventional politics and drew more on broad resentments than settled policy. Its entry into a federal coalition with urban conservatives gradually changed the party, pushing it toward the responsibilities of government.

That history offers the Nationals a route to adaptation, not a guarantee of survival. The next state elections will show whether local recognition and community ties can counter the loss of support to One Nation. By 2028, the central test will be whether the Nationals can keep acting as a party of government while still giving regional voters a reason to choose them.

Michelle Grattan is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra and chief political correspondent at The Conversation, where this article first appeared.