Typhoon Rosal Moves Away From Batanes, but Rough Seas and Rain Remain

Typhoon Rosal is tracking away from Batanes, easing the prospect of significant rain there, but its outer bands will keep weather and sea conditions hazardous across parts of the Philippines. The main near-term concern is shifting from the typhoon’s strongest winds to scattered storms, powerful gusts and dangerous waves.

Rosal heads north as warnings remain in force

At 4 pm on Friday, October 23, Rosal was 385 kilometers north northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, moving north northwest at 20 kilometers per hour. The storm was forecast to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Saturday morning, October 24.

Its maximum sustained winds had eased to 155 km/h, with gusts reaching 190 km/h. Rosal had earlier reached super typhoon strength, with sustained winds of 215 km/h.

As of 5 pm Friday, PAGASA had not lifted tropical cyclone wind signals in parts of Northern Luzon. Signal No. 2, covering gale-force winds of 62 to 88 km/h and a minor to moderate threat to life and property, remained in effect for Batanes.

Signal No. 1, for strong winds of 39 to 61 km/h and a minimal to minor threat, covered the northern part of Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands; northern Ilocos Norte; and northern Apayao. In Cagayan, the listed municipalities were Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-lo, Santa Teresita, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Buguey, Gattaran, Baggao, Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Ballesteros, Abulug, Allacapan and Lasam. The Ilocos Norte coverage included Pagudpud, Adams, Bangui, Vintar, Burgos, Bacarra, Pasuquin, Carasi and Dumalneg. In Apayao, it included Calanasan, Luna, Santa Marcela, Flora and Pudtol.

Rain and gusts will extend beyond the warning areas

Scattered rain and thunderstorms remained possible over the next 24 hours in Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the Cordillera Administrative Region, Palawan, Masbate, the Visayas, the Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Basilan and Tawi-Tawi. Rosal’s outer rainbands and the trough extending from the storm were expected to drive the unsettled weather.

Strong to gale-force gusts were also forecast across much of Luzon and the Visayas, as well as the Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, Davao Occidental and Davao Oriental on Friday. On Saturday, the forecast areas included Batanes, the Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, northern Quezon, the Polillo Islands, Bicol, Romblon, Capiz, Iloilo and Negros Occidental. By Sunday, October 25, gusts were expected to persist in Batanes and the Babuyan Islands.

Sea travel remains risky in the north

Seas were beginning to improve in areas affected by Rosal, but the northernmost provinces still faced severe conditions. Waves could reach 7 meters along Batanes’ northern coast and 6 meters along its other coasts. Forecast heights reached 5.5 meters around the Babuyan Islands, 5 meters off Ilocos Norte and northern mainland Cagayan, and 4.5 meters off Isabela, northern Ilocos Sur and the rest of mainland Cagayan’s coast.

Rough seas were expected across a wider stretch of coast. Waves could reach 4 meters off northern La Union, northern Aurora, the rest of Ilocos Sur, parts of Catanduanes, Northern Samar and Eastern Samar, and western Pangasinan. Forecasts called for waves up to 3.5 meters along parts of Albay, Sorsogon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Northern Samar, the Polillo Islands and Eastern Samar. Zambales, Dinagat Islands, Siargao-Bucas Grande Islands and the northern coast of the Kalayaan Islands could see waves up to 3 meters.

Waves of up to 2.5 meters were forecast off Surigao del Sur, western Bataan, the Lubang Islands, La Union and Pangasinan. Up to 2 meters were possible along parts of Batangas, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Davao Oriental, Lubang and the Kalayaan Islands. PAGASA advised that travel was risky for all vessels in areas with very rough or high seas, while small vessels should avoid going out in rough conditions or take precautions where seas were moderate to rough.

Forecast beyond Rosal’s exit

Rosal entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Tuesday, October 20. It was the country’s 18th tropical cyclone of 2026 and the first recorded for October. PAGASA had earlier estimated that one or two cyclones could enter the area during the month. After leaving the PAR, Rosal could weaken into a severe tropical storm by Sunday morning.

The storm arrived as the Philippines transitions to the northeast monsoon, or amihan, following the end of the southwest monsoon, or habagat, announced on October 5. The coming amihan period could be warmer than usual: strong El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific were forecast to become very strong in the fourth quarter of 2026.